New CMS Report: Surge in Immigration in 2014 and 2015? The Evidence Remains Illusory

Robert Warren of the Centre for Migration Studies has released new evidence refuting the findings of a June 2016 report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) ‘New Data: Immigration Surged in 2014 and 2015‘, which purported a surge in undocumented immigrants to the United States. After a close inspection of the CIS report, Warren has concluded the following key findings:

  • The reported increases in arrivals and foreign-born population growth in 2014 and 2015 are well within the bounds of normal annual fluctuations observed in Census Bureau survey data over the past 15 years.
  • Any increases were the result of: (1) an increase in temporary admissions, mostly students and temporary workers and their families; and, (2) the arrival of immigrants (overwhelmingly those with legal status) who resided here in previous years, left for some period, and returned.[1] The movement of the latter group, referred to here as “returning former immigrants,” is quantified here for the first time.
  • The CIS projection of increased arrivals of undocumented residents in 2014 and 2015 is based on faulty assumptions. Legal immigrant arrivals accounted for all of the reported increase in total arrivals in 2014, and therefore undocumented immigration likely has remained largely unchanged.

(Warren, 2016)

Read the full report here.